Responses of seasonal indicators to extreme droughts in southwest China

Significant impact of extreme droughts on human society and ecosystem has occurred in many places of the world, for example, Southwest China (SWC). Considerable research concentrated on analyzing causes and effects of droughts in SWC, but few studies have examined seasonal indicators, such as variations of surface water and vegetation phenology. With the ongoing satellite missions, more and more earth observation data become available to environmental studies. Exploring the responses of seasonal indicators from satellite data to drought is helpful for the future drought forecast and management. This study analyzed the seasonal responses of surface water and vegetation phenology to drought in SWC using the multi-source data including Seasonal Water Area (SWA), Permanent Water Area (PWA), Start of Season (SOS), End of Season (EOS), Length of Season (LOS), precipitation, temperature, solar radiation, evapotranspiration, the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) and data from water conservancy construction. The results showed that SWA and LOS effectively revealed the development and recovery of droughts. There were two obvious drought periods from 2000 to 2017. In the first period (from August 2003 to June 2007), SWA decreased by 11.81% and LOS shortened by 5 days. They reduced by 21.04% and 9 days respectively in the second period (from September 2009 to June 2014), which indicated that there are more severe droughts in the second period. The SOS during two drought periods delayed by 3~6 days in spring, while the EOS advanced 1~3 days in autumn. All of PDSI, SWA and LOS could reflect the period of droughts in SWC, but the LOS and PDSI were very sensitive to the meteorological events, such as precipitation and temperature, while the SWA performed a more stable reaction to drought and could be a good indicator for the drought periodicity. This made it possible for using SWA in drought forecast because of the strong correlation between SWA and drought. Our results improved the understanding of seasonal responses to extreme droughts in SWC, which will be helpful to the drought monitoring and mitigation for different seasons in this ecologically fragile region

Land use change and climate variation in the Three Gorges Reservoir Catchment from 2000 to 2015 based on the Google Earth Engine

Possible environmental change and ecosystem degradation have received increasing attention since the construction of Three Gorges Reservoir Catchment (TGRC) in China. The advanced Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud-based platform and the large number of Geosciences and Remote Sensing datasets archived in GEE were used to analyze the land use and land cover change (LULCC) and climate variation in TGRC. GlobeLand30 data were used to evaluate the spatial land dynamics from 2000 to 2010 and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) images were applied for land use in 2015. The interannual variations in the Land Surface Temperature (LST) and seasonally integrated normalized difference vegetation index (SINDVI) were estimated using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products. The climate factors including air temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration were investigated based on the data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). The results indicated that from 2000 to 2015, the cultivated land and grassland decreased by 2.05% and 6.02%, while the forest, wetland, artificial surface, shrub land and waterbody increased by 3.64%, 0.94%, 0.87%, 1.17% and 1.45%, respectively. The SINDVI increased by 3.209 in the period of 2000-2015, while the LST decreased by 0.253 °C from 2001 to 2015. The LST showed an increasing trend primarily in urbanized area, with a decreasing trend mainly in forest area. In particular, Chongqing City had the highest LST during the research period. A marked decrease in SINDVI occurred primarily in urbanized areas. Good vegetation areas were primarily located in the eastern part of the TGRC, such as Wuxi County, Wushan County, and Xingshan County. During the 2000–2015 period, the air temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration rose by 0.0678 °C/a, 1.0844 mm/a, and 0.4105 mm/a, respectively. The climate change in the TGRC was influenced by LULCC, but the effect was limited. What is more, the climate change was affected by regional climate change in Southwest China. Marked changes in land use have occurred in the TGRC, and they have resulted in changes in the LST and SINDVI. There was a significantly negative relationship between LST and SINDVI in most parts of the TGRC, especially in expanding urban areas and growing forest areas. Our study highlighted the importance of environmental protection, particularly proper management of land use, for sustainable development in the catchment

Smoking and smoking cessation in relation to risk of diabetes in Chinese men and women: a 9-year prospective study of 0·5 million people

Summary: Background: In developed countries, smoking is associated with increased risk of diabetes. Little is known about the association in China, where cigarette consumption has increased (first in urban, then in rural areas) relatively recently. Moreover, uncertainty remains about the effect of smoking cessation on diabetes in China and elsewhere. We aimed to assess the associations of smoking and smoking cessation with risk of incident diabetes among Chinese adults. Methods: The prospective China Kadoorie Biobank enrolled 512 891 adults (59% women) aged 30–79 years during 2004–08 from ten diverse areas (five urban and five rural) across China. Participants were interviewed at study assessment clinics, underwent physical measurements, and had a non-fasting blood sample taken. Participants were separated into four categories according to smoking history: never-smokers, ever-regular smokers, ex-smokers, and occasional smokers. Incident diabetes cases were identified through linkage with diabetes surveillance systems, the national health insurance system, and death registries. All analyses were done separately in men and women and Cox regression was used to yield adjusted hazards ratios (HRs) for diabetes associated with smoking. Findings: 68% (n=134 975) of men ever smoked regularly compared with 3% (n=7811) of women. During 9 years' follow-up, 13 652 new-onset diabetes cases were recorded among 482 589 participants without previous diabetes. Among urban men, smokers had an adjusted HR of 1·18 (95% CI 1·12–1·25) for diabetes. HRs increased with younger age at first smoking regularly (1·12, 1·20, and 1·27 at ≥25 years, 20–24 years, and <20 years, respectively; p for trend=0·00073) and with greater amount smoked (1·11, 1·15, 1·42, and 1·63 for <20, 20–29, 30–39 and ≥40 cigarettes per day; p for trend<0·0001). Among rural men, similar, albeit more modest, associations were seen. Overall, HRs were more extreme at higher levels of adiposity. Among men who stopped by choice, there was no excess risk within 5 years of cessation, contrasting with those who stopped because of illness (0·92 [0·75–1·12] vs 1·42 [1·23–1·63]). Among the few women who ever smoked regularly, the excess risk of diabetes was significant (1·33 [1·20–1·47]). Interpretation: Among Chinese adults, smoking was associated with increased risk of diabetes, with no significant excess risk following voluntary smoking cessation. Funding: Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, Ministry of Science and Technology, National Natural Science Foundation of China, and China Scholarship Council

Adiposity and risk of ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke in 0·5 million Chinese men and women: a prospective cohort study

Summary: Background: China has high stroke rates despite the population being relatively lean. Uncertainty persists about the relevance of adiposity to risk of stroke types. We aimed to assess the associations of adiposity with incidence of stroke types and effect mediation by blood pressure in Chinese men and women. Methods: The China Kadoorie Biobank enrolled 512 891 adults aged 30–79 years from ten areas (five urban and five rural) during 2004–08. During a median 9 years (IQR 8–10) of follow-up, 32 448 strokes (about 90% confirmed by neuroimaging) were recorded among 489 301 participants without previous cardiovascular disease. Cox regression analysis was used to produce adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for ischaemic stroke (n=25 210) and intracerebral haemorrhage (n=5380) associated with adiposity. Findings: Mean baseline body-mass index (BMI) was 23·6 kg/m2 (SD 3·2), and 331 723 (67·8%) participants had a BMI of less than 25 kg/m2. Throughout the range examined (mean 17·1 kg/m2 [SD 0·9] to 31·7 kg/m2 [2·0]), each 5 kg/m2 higher BMI was associated with 8·3 mm Hg (SE 0·04) higher systolic blood pressure. BMI was positively associated with ischaemic stroke, with an HR of 1·30 (95% CI 1·28–1·33 per 5 kg/m2 higher BMI), which was generally consistent with that predicted by equivalent differences in systolic blood pressure (1·25 [1·24–1·26]). The HR for intracerebral haemorrhage (1·11 [1·07–1·16] per 5 kg/m2 higher BMI) was less extreme, and much weaker than that predicted by the corresponding difference in systolic blood pressure (1·48 [1·46–1·50]). Other adiposity measures showed similar associations with stroke types. After adjustment for usual systolic blood pressure, the positive associations with ischaemic stroke were attenuated (1·05 [1·03–1·07] per 5 kg/m2 higher BMI); for intracerebral haemorrhage, they were reversed (0·73 [0·70–0·77]). High adiposity (BMI >23 kg/m2) accounted for 14·7% of total stroke (16·5% of ischaemic stroke and 6·7% of intracerebral haemorrhage). Interpretation: In Chinese adults, adiposity was strongly positively associated with ischaemic stroke, chiefly through its effect on blood pressure. For intracerebral haemorrhage, leanness, either per se or through some other factor (or factors), might increase risk, offsetting the protective effects of lower blood pressure. Funding: UK Wellcome Trust, UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, Chinese National Natural Science Foundation

Age-specific association between blood pressure and vascular and non-vascular chronic diseases in 0·5 million adults in China: a prospective cohort study

Summary: Background: The age-specific association between blood pressure and vascular disease has been studied mostly in high-income countries, and before the widespread use of brain imaging for diagnosis of the main stroke types (ischaemic stroke and intracerebral haemorrhage). We aimed to investigate this relationship among adults in China. Methods: 512 891 adults (59% women) aged 30–79 years were recruited into a prospective study from ten areas of China between June 25, 2004, and July 15, 2008. Participants attended assessment centres where they were interviewed about demographic and lifestyle characteristics, and their blood pressure, height, and weight were measured. Incident disease was identified through linkage to local mortality records, chronic disease registries, and claims to the national health insurance system. We used Cox regression analysis to produce adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) relating systolic blood pressure to disease incidence. HRs were corrected for regression dilution to estimate associations with long-term average (usual) systolic blood pressure. Findings: During a median follow-up of 9 years (IQR 8–10), there were 88 105 incident vascular and non-vascular chronic disease events (about 90% of strokes events were diagnosed using brain imaging). At ages 40–79 years (mean age at event 64 years [SD 9]), usual systolic blood pressure was continuously and positively associated with incident major vascular disease throughout the range 120–180 mm Hg: each 10 mm Hg higher usual systolic blood pressure was associated with an approximately 30% higher risk of ischaemic heart disease (HR 1·31 [95% CI 1·28–1·34]) and ischaemic stroke (1·30 [1·29–1·31]), but the association with intracerebral haemorrhage was about twice as steep (1·68 [1·65–1·71]). HRs for vascular disease were twice as steep at ages 40–49 years than at ages 70–79 years. Usual systolic blood pressure was also positively associated with incident chronic kidney disease (1·40 [1·35–1·44]) and diabetes (1·14 [1·12–1·15]). About half of all vascular deaths in China were attributable to elevated blood pressure (ie, systolic blood pressure >120 mm Hg), accounting for approximately 1 million deaths (<80 years of age) annually. Interpretation: Among adults in China, systolic blood pressure was continuously related to major vascular disease with no evidence of a threshold down to 120 mm Hg. Unlike previous studies in high-income countries, blood pressure was more strongly associated with intracerebral haemorrhage than with ischaemic stroke. Even small reductions in mean blood pressure at a population level could be expected to have a major impact on vascular morbidity and mortality. Funding: UK Wellcome Trust, UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, and the National Science Foundation of China